Picture 1: The Maldives
Picture 2: The Maldives government holding session underwater to make a point.
Picture 3: How New York will look to your grand kids
Projections for 2013 to 2100 from US National Research Council:
56-200cm additional rise (22.04-78.4 inches additional rise) (1ft, 10inches-6ft, 6.4 inches additional rise) (0.274-1.9812 meters of additional rise)
Total sea level rise in recorded human history:
-1870-2004 Totals: 195mm (19.5cm) (7.7 inches)
-1870-2004 Averages/yr: 1.455mm per year (.1455cm per year) (.057 inches per year)
More recent trends within the big picture (exponential speed of climate change)
-1950-2009: 1.7mm per year (0.17cm per year) (.06 inches per year)
-1993-2009: 3.3mm per year (0.33cm) (.129 inches per year)
Cause of sea level rise:
1.) Ocean warming=ocean expansion (93.2% of all global warming thus far has been in the ocean, and on land North America just had the warmest calendar year in recorded history in 2012, so that tells you how quickly and how much the oceans are heating)
2.) Warming=Ice melting (from Actic, Antarctica, Greenland ice sheet)
Maldives sea level:
-200 plus inhabited islands, most 1-1.5m above sea level (3.28ft-4.92ft)
-7.7 inches down , about 40 or so to go in most places.
-22.04-78.4 inches (5th percentile of plausible certainty to 95th percentile of plausible, median is about 50th percentile, or most likely case is about 50 inches of additional rise)
-So, about 80% of the way to 2100 the Maldives will join Atlantis (so roughly 70 years)
-In other words, using the median sea level rise prediction and assuming we don’t actually get worse than expected with our CO2 emission, every last bit of land of an entire nation currently on the map today will be gone by around 2080.
-Now, that might not sound like a big deal to you, it’s just some island nation with people you don’t care about, even though you should. However, the reality is people you do care about will be very much affected by as little as 4-6ft of sea level rise, because America might not be an island nation, places like New York (i.e long island) kind of are, and their sea level is about the same as the Maldives. So, take a good look at the picture of New York, because that is how your kids and grandkids will come to know it. Venice at worst, Atlantis